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Chelsea or Man Utd, QPR v Watford - FA Cup 5th Round Tips & Best Odds

Chelsea or Man Utd, QPR v Watford - FA Cup 5th Round Tips & Best Odds
Thursday,February 14,2019

The FA Cup is now very much in the business end, as we reach the fifth round of the world’s oldest football competition this weekend. It’s been a story of giant killing in this year’s edition, with just seven Premier League sides remaining and lower league clubs AFC Wimbledon and Newport County, providing the heart-warming tales so far. The first of the eight ties gets underway Friday night with QPR v Watford, in what promises to be another fascinating weekend of cup football. Here’s a look at our top four tips at who to back:


Watford to beat QPR: As just one of seven top flight clubs left, Watford won’t have a much better opportunity to make it through to just their second quarter-final in the past decade, while a first final since 1984 can’t be ruled out either. Although they’re as short as 11/13 to secure victory at Loftus Road, recent form and the fact their sitting comfortably in eighth, this should be a fairly straightforward one to start with everything in favour of the visitors.


The Hornets head into this on the back of just one defeat in nine, including a well earned 1-0 win at Everton last weekend. Expect a stronger team than in recent rounds, although they did win at Newcastle despite making a hatful of changes. On the other hand, QPR are in wretched form.


Steve McClaren’s men have lost five Championship matches in a row with their only two victories in their past 10 coming in the FA Cup. They’ve slipped well out of play-off contention but the one saving grace to their season is the cup run but Watford should have more than enough to win in 90 minutes, with extra-time now on the cards instead of replays from this stage forward.


AFC Wimbledon to beat Millwall: There’s just something about Wimbledon and the FA Cup. Whether it’s the original Wimbledon’s cup winning miracle in 1988 or the Dons rise from the ashes that culminated in shocking West Ham in the fourth round, the two seem to go hand in hand.


It’s been a strange season for the Dons however. They’re currently rock bottom of League One, seven points adrift of safety but produced one of the biggest shocks in the FA Cup this season, hammering a strong West Ham side 4-2 to make it this far. Their recent 1-0 win at Walsall will give them a big boost going into this fifth round tie, and they come up against another side struggling in the league.


Millwall have gone five without a win in the Championship and are just three points above the drop zone, but too were giant killers in the fourth round, with a last gasp 3-2 victory against Everton. With just a division separating the sides, the non-league setting at Kingsmeadow will certainly favour Wimbledon, and might just help them over the line and into the quarter-finals for the first time since reformation, and at 3/1, are good value to do so.


Brighton & Derby to draw after 90 minutes: With match results just including 90 minutes, you can still back the draw despite the fact the tie has to be resolved on the day. Both sides will no doubt be making changes with league points worth much more to them. Four defeats in five has seen Brighton slip to just three points above the Premier League relegation zone, while four unbeaten in the Championship, puts Frank Lampard’s Derby County goal difference off the top six.


Changes to the starting line-ups and form will even up this tie and the division that separates the two, putting the draw at 5/2 as the most likely outcome. Both teams have already been held once a piece in the FA Cup this season, with Derby requiring penalties in their replay with Southampton to progress to round four, while Brighton were held at home to West Brom, before winning 3-1 in the replay. Brighton have won just one in seven while Derby are unbeaten in their last six in all competitions. We’re backing the draw in normal time, but it’s anyone’s game after that.


Manchester United to beat Chelsea: The stand out tie of the fifth round sees Man Utd travel to Stamford Bridge on Monday night, in a repeat of last year’s final. Chelsea were victorious back in May, but it could well be a different story this time around. Maurizio Sarri’s Blues are not having the best time of it recently. Before the end of January, Chelsea had only suffered a four goal defeat in the Premier League once, back in 1996, but fast forward two weeks and that stands at three. First, they suffered an embarrassing 4-0 loss at Bournemouth, while last Sunday, Man City blew them away 6-0, to leave Sarri’s job seemingly hanging by a thread. Chelsea also lost 2-0 to Arsenal before that, while a win on penalties against Spurs in the League Cup semi-finals has been the one saving grace in recent weeks.


On the other hand, despite defeat to PSG in midweek, Man Utd have been flying, with 10 wins in 11 under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer before that Champions League loss. They’ve been a different side under the United legend, playing free-flowing attacking football but might be missing key men Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial on Monday, after the duo picked up injuries on Tuesday. Even so, they still can call on the likes of Paul Pogba, Marcus Rashford and former Blues men Juan Mata and Romelu Lukaku to do damage. The fact United are slight outsiders at 13/5 to Chelsea’s 7/6 represents better value for money and may sway you to back the Red Devils, although this one could easily be settled in extra-time and potentially penalties.


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